In Argentina, a significant political event is on the horizon as the country prepares for its primary elections this Sunday. Serving as a nationwide litmus test, these primaries offer a glimpse into the collective sentiment of the electorate leading up to the pivotal general elections scheduled for October. However, amidst the backdrop of a struggling economy characterized by triple-digit inflation and an escalating poverty rate, a sense of frustration and indifference among many citizens looms large.
The upcoming primary elections, which are obligatory and open to all eligible voters, will play a decisive role in shaping the landscape of the conservative opposition bloc’s leadership. Additionally, they will officially endorse the chosen candidate of the ruling Peronist coalition, Economy Minister Sergio Massa. Notably, this event will also serve as a litmus test for the popularity of the outsider libertarian contender, Javier Milei, whose favorable standing in recent polls has drawn attention.
As the capital city of Buenos Aires bustles with preparations, a notable uncertainty prevails among the voters. Many individuals find themselves still wavering between options, mirroring the prevalent indecisiveness showcased in pre-election polls. The traditional dichotomy of support for Peronist and conservative coalitions is witnessing a growing number of individuals distancing themselves, while moderates express concerns about the ascent of Milei.
Reflecting the sentiment of many, Pablo Vairo, a 42-year-old lawyer in the capital, articulated, “It’s a matter of choosing which option you dislike the least.” The memory of the shocking outcome from the primaries four years ago remains vivid – an overwhelming victory for the opposition that sent shockwaves through markets and triggered an economic upheaval. Yet, this time around, the likelihood of such a dramatic result appears diminished due to the complexities of a divided vote, making a definitive outcome less straightforward.
Facundo Nejamkis, an analyst at pollster Opina Argentina, shared insights into the probable trajectory of the elections. He noted, “It’s highly likely we will have a runoff and very little chance one of the forces will win in the (October) first round.” Presently, both major political blocs command 28-35% of the votes, with Milei’s support hovering around 20%. To secure an outright victory in the October 22nd general election, presidential candidates need to attain 45% of the votes or 40% with a lead of 10 percentage points over the runner-up. In the absence of such a majority, a head-to-head second round in November becomes the most probable scenario.
Referred to as a “punishment vote,” the conservative Together for Change bloc faces internal divisions between the more moderate Buenos Aires city mayor, Horacio Larreta, and the former security minister, Patricia Bullrich. Despite this, they maintain a lead in the polls, closely followed by the ruling Peronist Union por la Patria coalition. As Argentina’s political landscape takes shape in the upcoming primaries, the nation braces for the repercussions that will reverberate through the general elections in October.